Dec 19, 2025
NBA Rethinks Tanking: Draft Lottery Odds Under Fire
Merlin sees the league quietly reopening its playbook on tanking. The NBA told teams it is reviewing "draft pick protections, revised draft lottery rules, and other approaches" after past changes in 2017 created equal 14 percent odds for the three worst teams and after the 2020 introduction of the play in tournament. The review could reshape how teams value losing versus competing. Merlin notes proposals already floating around, like limiting protections to top four protected lottery protected or unprotected and flattening lottery odds further. Such moves would reduce the payoff for deliberate losing and raise the trade value of picks. Expect heavy bargaining between owners and front offices before any change lands.
🧙♂️ Merlin’s Prediction
Odds of the NBA altering pick protections or lottery odds this offseason: 65%.
