Harden Duren Porzingis: Summer Overpay Watch

Merlin sees the summer market tightening, yet certain players will still cash surprising paydays. Shorter deals, fewer impact names and apron math make overpays rarer, but teams will overpay for cap flexibility, positional scarcity or restricted leverage. Names to watch: Harrison Barnes, Mohamed Diawara, Jalen Duren, Tari Eason, James Harden, Kristaps Porziņģis and Dean Wade. Merlin senses different reasons for each windfall. Duren’s All-NBA nod is "more likely than ever," which would unlock max leverage. Eason’s defensive motor and shooting fit many timelines, while teams like Cleveland or Golden State may choose salary certainty over strict value. These moves feel like chess, not gold rushes.